The public AI Overview click-loss figures, an isolated drop of roughly 34.5% to 58% for the top result, are network-wide averages, and your site can sit far from them. Estimating your own number takes three inputs you can mostly assemble for free: your click and CTR trend from Google Search Console, a signal for which of your queries trigger an AI Overview, and the public benchmark to sanity-check the result. Below is an honest method, in five steps, that names what it can and cannot prove.
Step 1: Segment your informational queries in Search Console
Start where the click loss concentrates. Ahrefs found about 99.2% of AI-Overview keywords are informational, so open the Search Console Search performance report and isolate your informational, question-style queries (how, what, why, best way to, and topic-explainer terms) from your branded and transactional ones. Export clicks, impressions, and average CTR for that informational segment over at least the last 12 months. This segment is where an AI Overview is most likely to sit above you and skim the click.
Step 2: Identify which of those queries trigger an AI Overview
Search Console will not tell you this directly, so bring an outside signal. Three practical options, roughly in order of rigour:
| Method | How it works | Limitation |
|---|---|---|
| Rank tracker with an AI-Overview flag | Many trackers mark which tracked keywords show an AI Overview | Costs money; covers only tracked terms |
| Generative AI performance report | Confirms which of your pages appear in AI features | Impressions-only; no query, no CTR |
| Manual SERP checks | Spot-check your top informational queries by hand | Slow; a point-in-time snapshot |
Combine what you have: a tracker flag tells you an AI Overview appears, and the Generative AI performance report confirms whether your page is being surfaced in AI features at all. Neither gives clicks, which is why Step 3 leans on your own CTR trend.
Step 3: Compare CTR where AI Overviews appear against where they do not
With the queries split, compare average CTR at a similar position for two groups: informational queries that trigger an AI Overview versus informational queries that do not. This mirrors the method Ahrefs used, holding intent and position roughly constant so the AI Overview is the main difference. If you lack a clean AI-Overview flag, use time instead: track CTR-at-position for your informational segment across the period AI Overviews expanded on your terms, and watch for a sustained decline that is not explained by a ranking change.
Search Console cannot hand you an AI Overview click-loss number, because its AI report has no clicks and its click report has no AI-Overview flag. The estimate lives in the gap between them, so label it an estimate and show your working.
Step 4: Apply the public benchmark as a sanity check
Convert the CTR difference into a rough click-loss estimate, then check it against the public range. If your position-one informational CTR is materially lower where AI Overviews appear, an isolated drop in the region of one-third to one-half is consistent with Ahrefs' 34.5%–58% findings. A far larger apparent drop usually means something else moved too (a ranking slip, a seasonal dip, a redesign), so investigate before attributing it all to AI Overviews. An estimate that lands inside the benchmark band is the credible, defensible case.
Step 5: Reframe the goal from clicks kept to citations earned
Finish by turning the estimate into a plan, because you cannot switch AI Overviews off. Seer Interactive found organic CTR was about 0.70% when a brand was cited inside the AI Overview versus 0.52% when it was not, so the winnable gap is being named as the source, not avoiding the overview. Use your estimate to prioritise the informational pages losing the most clicks, then work to be cited rather than merely shown on exactly those queries. The click you can still earn increasingly comes from being inside the answer.
Estimating the loss once is a useful audit; watching your click loss, your AI-Overview citations, and your recovered zero-click visibility move together across engines is the ongoing job that Buffy Intel is built for. Questions: [email protected].